Print Story All for one and one for all
Diary
By TheophileEscargot (Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 08:49:46 AM EST) Reading, Me, MLP (all tags)
Reading: "Old Man's War". Me. Web: bailout special.


What I'm Reading
Old Man's War by John Scalzi. Traditional science fiction in a modern setting: reads almost like a tribute to Heinlein. Setup is familiar, but with an interesting new gimmick. A motley crew of raw recruits is trained into an effective infantry force and sent off to battle aliens across the galaxy. However, all the recruits are aged 75 or over: the incentive to sign up is that you get your brain transplanted into a healthy young body.

Rather good. Scalzi's generous with his aliens: it's a Hobbsian galaxy in a permanent state of war, so the hero gets to meet and kill a pleasant variety. I liked the one-inch-tall humanoids, whose tiny fighters are deadly in space combat, but who present little challenge to infantry using the Stepping On Them tactic. There's some attempt to bring things up to date: everyone has brain implants to communicate and access tactical information, though they're pretty crude by, say, Revelation Space standards. The action scenes are fairly effective, and there's a bit of a human element too.

Does take a certain amount of suspension of disbelief: hard to see why blokes with guns are better than specialized combat drones, or why they don't just download a handful of the same supersoldiers into these bodies: apparently they value life experience.

However, this is the first in a series of five: more advanced GM warriors are hinted at in subsequent volumes, as well as some questioning of whether all this killing is really necessary. The wars are supposed to be over habitable planets, but you'd think some alliances would be more effective than all-against-all warfare. However, in a deeply Heinleinish scene the Loudmouth Former Politician is eaten alive when he starts trying to think that way.

Pretty fun, will look out for further volumes.

Coming Soon
Next book: NHS Plc: The Privatisation of Our Health Care, as recommended by Herring.

Next TTC course: Great Philosophical Debates: Free Will and Determinism.

Me
Wisdom tooth removal seems to have gone very well so far, medically speaking. Didn't take long, and everything seems to have gone smoothly. Was surprised at how little pain there was from the needle; no pain in the operation itself; slight ache afterwards, eliminated by over-the-counter stuff (paracetomol+codeine).

However, I really hate this kind of thing, and I freaked out a bit in the later stages, though fortunately not enough to affect the procedure. Felt pretty shell-shocked afterwards. Hope I never have to have the tricky lower two pulverised and removed. Maybe I should try getting drunk first.

Definitely glad to live after the discovery of anaesthetics though. Can't imagine what it would be like to go through it with just a loblolly-boy pounding a drum to distract me and drown out the screams.

Web
Video. All the cats join in: A Jazz interlude (via K5). Cascading sticky notes. Impressive capoeira skills, up to a point.

Big planes.

Somalia's pirate kingdom.

Web 2
Roundup of the econoblogs on the big giant bailout.

Dani Rodrik (leftish development economist) asks where did we go wrong?

What is happening in the U.S. is no different from what took place in Thailand in 1997 or in Argentina in 1999, with the entire financial sector going belly-up. The only thing that remains to be seen is whether the costs to the real economy will be as high too. The rough rule of thumb for emerging markets is that banking crises are associated with an output loss of around 10% (see here for example). The best estimate we have at present is that U.S. real GDP will take a hit of something like 3.6% over the next couple of years. This is a fraction of the loss experienced in a typical emerging market crash--but of course this particular estimate may also prove to be wildly optimistic.
VoxEU ponders the European implications:
The key problem on this side of the Atlantic is that the largest European banks have become not only too big to fail but also too big to be saved. For example, the total liabilities of Deutsche Bank (leverage ratio over 50!) amount to around 2,000 billion euro, (more than Fannie Mai) or over 80 % of the GDP of Germany. This is simply too much for the Bundesbank or even the German state to contemplate, given that the German budget is bound by the rules of the Stability pact and the German government cannot order (unlike the US Treasury) its central bank to issue more currency. The total liabilities of Barclays of around 1,300 billion pounds (leverage ratio over 60!) surpasses Britain’s GDP. Fortis bank, which has been in the news recently, has a leverage ratio of "only" 33, but its liabilities are several times larger than the GDP of its home country (Belgium).
...
The authorities in the UK and Switzerland -- who cannot rely on the ECB - can only pray that no accident happens to the giants they have in their own garden.
Wat Tyler is in the Slough of Despond
I'm afraid to say, we're facing much more regulation.

And much more government.

And much less willingness to trust markets.

We're in the Slough.

Larry Elliot seems pretty cheerful for much the same reasons:
Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, and Hank Paulson, the Goldman Sachs tycoon who became US treasury secretary, have done more for socialism in the past seven days than anybody since Marx and Engels.

Over and above the extraordinary individual events, there was the capitulation of the prevailing economic model. History will show that the great postwar experiment with financial deregulation lasted from the first oil shock in 1973 to the third oil shock in 2008.

However, the other free-market Tyler, Tyler Cowen, has more fight in him, though he's mostly linking to others so far: here, here.

Anatole Kaletsky, who's been pro-intervention for a while, is optimistic

Assuming that events unfold as described above, fears of bank failures and financial panics should soon dissipate.
< On her MFCs secret service | Should we? >
All for one and one for all | 36 comments (36 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback
Barclays and Barcap especially by jump the ladder (4.00 / 2) #1 Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 10:15:27 AM EST
Everyone else in the City judging by the chat around my trading floor and the bars of Canary Wharf speaks of them in hushed tones of reverence equivalent to Goldman Sachs pre-crisis. They're very happy to trade with them and give them lowest rates. So I don't think you have to worry about them at all. They've come out of this smelling of roses.



Bail-out by nebbish (4.00 / 2) #2 Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 12:19:08 PM EST
Two things seem worrying for the coming years - that the money used to do it will have an impact on government budgets, something that will probably be felt most by the poor; and that injecting that amount of money into the economy is bound to be inflationary. There's still a recession coming IMHO.

I did wonder about the economics of investing the money in a way that was abandoned in the past because it was seen as inflationary, if we're going to be inflationary about it anyway - eg, into hospitals, schools, infrastructure - and letting collapsing banks collapse. Would this leave the economy any worse off? I don't really know enough to say.

--------
It's political correctness gone mad!


I have probably said this before by Herring (4.00 / 2) #4 Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 01:24:09 PM EST
but one thing that strikes me is that the "Keynesian Era" (say 1945 - 1975 as a guess) was not only when goverments did big things (NHS, Concorde, Moon landings) but also the period when the lot of the "ordinary man" improved the most. Although the 1980s - present have seen a lot of "growth" the lot of the working person, particularly in the US, hasn't really improved at all (dammit - where did I see that graph). This could be due to globalisation, or it could be due to the rich now being in charge and being greedy cunts.

Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge - Charles Darwin
[ Parent ]

You're exactly right by johnny (4.00 / 2) #5 Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 02:06:16 PM EST
and this is deliberate policy of the Republicans.  Remember, Reagan's first significant act as president was to fire the striking air traffic controllers, signaling an assault on unions.   Over the last 30 years, compensation for people at the upper, upper end of the pay scale has gone up astronomically in real terms, while the average wage of the average working stiff has stayed the same, even though productivity has gone up a couple of points a year.  Had this wealth been put into national health insurance, affordable universities, better infrastructure (mass transit, intercity rail), then then everybody would have benefitted. Instead it was given to the wealthy.

Buy my books, dammit!
[ Parent ]

Don't quite agree by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #24 Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 12:43:03 PM EST
As I see it, the economic cycle has booms and recessions.

During the booms, the rich do a lot better than the poor, as their assets (like shares and houses) go up in price.

Then the recession comes and evens the distribution out again.

The first difference is that we've had an unusually long boom period, which has caused a greater increase in inequality.

The second difference is that this time they're trying to preserve the inequality through the recession, through a massive tax-funded bailout of the rich people's investments.

If successful, it's not just going to be down to the Republicans. It's a Democrat Congress that will have to pass the bailout bill.
--
Butch and Petey are harsh and unforgiving in their estimation of female beauty.
[ Parent ]

And also by TheophileEscargot (4.00 / 1) #25 Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 12:51:09 PM EST
This Naked Capitalism article was pretty disturbing:
$700 billion is comparable to the hard cost of the Iraq war, bigger than the annual Pentagon budget. And mind you, $700 billion is not the maximum that the Treasury may spend, it's the ceiling on the outstandings at any one time. It's a balance sheet number, not an expenditure limit.

But here is the truly offensive section of an overreaching piece of legislation:

Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.

This puts the Treasury's actions beyond the rule of law. This is a financial coup d'etat, with the only limitation the $700 billion balance sheet figure. The measure already gives the Treasury the authority not simply to buy dud mortgage paper but other assets as it deems fit. There is no accountability beyond a report (contents undefined) to Congress three months into the program and semiannually thereafter. The Treasury could via incompetence or venality grossly overpay for assets and advisory services, and fail to exclude consultants with conflicts of interest, and there would be no recourse.

And I got that link via former Bush administration economist Greg Mankiw of all people...
--
Butch and Petey are harsh and unforgiving in their estimation of female beauty.
[ Parent ]

US legislators saw through that..... by Tonatiuh (2.00 / 0) #34 Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 02:02:34 PM EST
... as you will know by now.

The shamelessness and cronyism of the current US administration knows no limits...


[ Parent ]

This chart by MillMan (4.00 / 1) #27 Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 05:25:15 PM EST
here covers it. There has been a couple boom / bust cycles since productivity detached from wages.



When I'm imprisoned as an enemy combatant, will you blog about it?
[ Parent ]

However by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #28 Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 05:29:56 PM EST
Johnny said "compensation": you've moved to "wages". Since 1980ish there's been an increasing proportion of non-wage compensation, like stock options, healthcare plans. So it's pretty easy to find scary graphs showing diminishing "wages", but harder for total "compensation"... though there has been some effect there too.
--
Butch and Petey are harsh and unforgiving in their estimation of female beauty.
[ Parent ]

I agree completely by nebbish (4.00 / 1) #6 Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 02:34:09 PM EST
But could a policy of Keynesian investment that leaves the banks to go bust work? I'm just not sure if it'd balance out. I suspect it would - all the market seems to have done is raise house prices and create a debt bubble.

--------
It's political correctness gone mad!
[ Parent ]

Part of me wonders by Herring (4.00 / 2) #7 Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 03:08:58 PM EST
the big companies have become more profitable by keeping staff costs (pay) low, to a certain extent  improving productivity (partly by more of this unpaid overtime crap) and selling more stuff. But if the people buying stuff were buying it on credit (partly back by property - the value of which is falling) which is no longer so freely available, where does this leave the economy?

Henry Ford, the evil nazi that he was, intended that his workers would be able to afford to buy the vehicles he made. Companies these days just intend to pay their people as little as they can get away with, forgetting that if everybody does that then nobody will be able to afford stuff. If that makes any sense at all.

It's interesting that this era began with Thatcher who used to preach "sound finance" and "living within your means".

I don't know what would happen if the banks were allowed to fail. It wouldn't be pretty though.

Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge - Charles Darwin
[ Parent ]

Defo by nebbish (4.00 / 1) #8 Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 04:36:18 PM EST
I think the justification is that with upward mobility, the deserving will go onto better things. Well-paid jobs for life have been sacrificed for more fluidity and opportunity. I think this is just an after-the-fact excuse though, it obviously isn't the case for a lot of people.

Allowing the banks to fail wouldn't apply to all banks. Their liabilities and assets would pass to other banks. Meanwhile the government invests in infrastructure, creating jobs that way and shifting the money to a different (more useful?) part of the economy.

I suspect the real problem is that the failing banks would be bought out by rising financial institutions in China and Russia.

--------
It's political correctness gone mad!
[ Parent ]

Mobility by Herring (4.00 / 1) #10 Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 06:01:21 PM EST
The stats would seem to suggest that mobility has declined over the last few decades.

I may be wrong, but it appears that pretty much all of the banks have a leverage ratio far above 1.0. Now i'm bugger if I can understand how that happened unless there is something very rotten in the state of Denmark.

Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge - Charles Darwin
[ Parent ]

Eh? by nebbish (4.00 / 1) #14 Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 09:09:22 PM EST
Explain this 1.0 leverage stuff pls?

--------
It's political correctness gone mad!
[ Parent ]

See by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #18 Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 03:57:28 AM EST
Fractional Reserve Banking. It's the ratio between the money they've got, and the money they've lent out.
--
Butch and Petey are harsh and unforgiving in their estimation of female beauty.
[ Parent ]

Henry Ford by TheophileEscargot (4.00 / 1) #17 Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 03:54:46 AM EST
I've mentioned it before but Henry Ford was largely forced to raise wages because of massive turnover problems:
In 1913 "Ford required between 13,000 and 14,000 workers to run his plants at any one time, and in that year over 50,000 workers quit." At the end of the same year, in order to add 100 persons to the workforce in one factory, the company found it necessary to add 963 workers."
I'm not convinced that letting the banks fail would be that disastrous. It's naturally in their interest to talk up how disastrous it would be, so they can get bailed out.

In the US depression of the 1930s, so many banks failed (about a quarter I believe), that it did cause big liquidity problems for anyone trying to borrow money, and of course people whose money had been lost.

But this isn't the 1930s. There's deposit insurance now so that people won't lose all their savings if their bank goes bust. And we've been over-supplied with liquidity lately hence the housing bubble. Letting some banks fail may return liquidity levels to a reaonable level.

A while ago I linked to a Kaletsky article with an analogy:

To see what I mean consider the following example. In the old world before the arrival of "hyper-finance", if a family wanted a £100,000 mortgage, they would simply go to the Halifax and borrow £100,000. Now consider what happens in the new financial world. The family would borrow £100,000 from Northern Rock, which would sell £100,000 of bonds to hedge funds, which buy these with £100,000 borrowed from Bear Stearns, their prime broker, which would raise this money by selling £100,000 of commercial paper to Citibank, which would then borrow £100,000 through the inter-bank market from Halifax.

So now the original £100,000 mortgage transaction has created £500,000 of new debts.

In principle, this entire chain of transactions could be squeezed, like a concertina, back to the original £100,000 transaction between the householder and Halifax, reducing the total amount of credit in the banking system by 80 per cent. This huge reduction in credit would do no great harm either to the homeowner or the ultimate lender, but eliminating all those intermediate transactions would devastate jobs and profits within the banks.

The upshot is that the main people suffering pay cuts and job losses in the present crisis are bankers, rather than industrial workers as in previous slowdowns.


--
Butch and Petey are harsh and unforgiving in their estimation of female beauty.
[ Parent ]

Pass the parcel loan thing by Herring (4.00 / 1) #23 Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 12:25:41 PM EST
kind of reinforces my opinion that a great deal of the finance business is pure bullshit generating no real value whatsoever.

Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge - Charles Darwin
[ Parent ]

I don't know how much value it creates by garlic (2.00 / 0) #30 Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 08:17:13 PM EST
for non-bankers. Easier to get loans can be good, if you actually have the ability to pay it off.

[ Parent ]

Banks, financial institutions are a necessary evil by Tonatiuh (2.00 / 0) #35 Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 02:09:31 PM EST
When properly regulated, they help to allocate efficiently money.

The problem is when in the initial transaction in the chain, the lenders do not do their homework (encouraged by politicized or weak legislation which may literally enforce banks to be reckless with their checks and lending policies).


[ Parent ]

fuck bankers. by garlic (2.00 / 0) #29 Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 08:16:10 PM EST


[ Parent ]

Concorde by jump the ladder (4.00 / 1) #9 Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 05:09:39 PM EST

Great technical acheivement, lousy commercial prospect.

Keynesian era stored up a lot of problems. Low productivity growth in the UK and US for example. Also that era's prosperity was underpinned to much larger extent than our's on cheap oil which came to an end in 1973. Lets face it even without Thatcherism British manufacturing industry was being eaten alive by the competition (and rightly so in the case BL).



[ Parent ]

Hmmm. by Herring (4.00 / 1) #13 Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 08:40:17 PM EST
"Low productivity growth". How is that measured exactly? How many cars, for instance, did the UK produce in 1945 and how many in 1975?

BL, well, yes the cars do seem crap now (my first car as a 1973 Triumph and I spent a lot of time getting very oil-stained) but I wonder whether, for the time they were that awful. Saying that, one of the lessons I have learned working for LCC is .... no better wait for a holiary for that one.

Do you not think that it's a shame though that in the early 70s, we could fly a man in t-shirt and jeans across the atlantic at 1,350mph, we had people walking around on the moon etc. and now .... well we can listen to our whole CD collection wherever we go. I think that's what cheered me up about the whole LHC thing - ambition and cooperation for more than just a shallow commercial goal.

Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge - Charles Darwin
[ Parent ]

Compare the UK to the rest of the core EU by nebbish (4.00 / 1) #15 Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 09:23:48 PM EST
Where unemployment might be higher (we've dodged out of that with sick benefit for the long term unemployed), but there is a higher standard of living.

They battled their way through the 70s and 80s with high government spending, and have to an extent reaped the problems of doing that over the last few years. On balance though, it looks like they did the right thing - we were more competitive, attracted more investment, and the City became the centre of European finance, but look where that's got us now.

The continental core EU countries haven't been hit by this as hard as we have. I suppose we'll have to reserve judgement for now and see how it pans out, but the continental model of grumbling low-level problems seems much better than the ultra-boom/ultra-bust model we've been going through since the 70s.

--------
It's political correctness gone mad!
[ Parent ]

Well by TheophileEscargot (4.00 / 1) #16 Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 03:44:44 AM EST
If they borrow or print money for the bailout, it will be inflationary.

If they raise taxes to pay for the bailout, it will slow economic growth.

If they cut other spending to pay for the bailout, it'll hurt whoever's benefiting from that spending.

So, I think it's pretty bad news whichever. Glad I'm not an American taxpayer: Northern Rock seems like pretty small beer by comparison.
--
Butch and Petey are harsh and unforgiving in their estimation of female beauty.
[ Parent ]

(a) by ucblockhead (4.00 / 2) #21 Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 12:05:09 PM EST
Given the American political climate, we'll almost certainly do the first.
----
ウセーバラケダ
[ Parent ]

Borrow more from the Chinese by Herring (4.00 / 1) #22 Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 12:19:26 PM EST
They wont have to invade - in 20 years time, China will own the US outright and be able to do what the fuck they want.

Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge - Charles Darwin
[ Parent ]

Nah by ucblockhead (4.00 / 1) #26 Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 02:42:26 PM EST
We borrowed lots of money from them to build the world's most powerful military force.  They are kinda like the guy who lends the local gun nut money to expand his collection.  He collects only at the gun nut's convenience.
----
ウセーバラケダ
[ Parent ]

plus, by garlic (2.00 / 0) #31 Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 08:20:02 PM EST
I think we can print money to pay off the chinese.

[ Parent ]

I just had a revelation, thanks to you. by ammoniacal (2.00 / 0) #33 Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 08:37:01 PM EST
Every dollar bill we fire over to China is like a little re-usable missile which they can fire back at us, when it's inconvenient for us, and convenient for them.

This coomenat has be n soidnsord by hurricanbe ice malt liqur
[ Parent ]

What about stopping a pair of useless wars? by Tonatiuh (2.00 / 0) #36 Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 02:14:09 PM EST
That will pay for a lot of that.

And in the UK, what about binning wasteful schemes, like the ID cards nonsense?

There are plenty of savings to be made that should not affect most people, but clearly the current governments in the US and UK are too  inept (or corrupt in the case of the US) to realize this.


[ Parent ]

Old Mans War by Vulch (4.00 / 1) #3 Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 12:26:38 PM EST
The second book is from the point of view of one of who I think you mean by super-soldiers and shows some of their limitations. The method of body swapping used doesn't allow for duplication of individuals so training up a handful and then running off copies isn't viable.

Nobody seems to trust AIs, and there's not much around in the way of robotics, so maybe together that explains the use of biological troops by everyone rather than combat drones. Later on some of the problems with a general reliance on tech solutions to combat problems come out.






The Last Colony by ucblockhead (4.00 / 1) #12 Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 07:17:23 PM EST
I did like "The Ghost Brigades" a lot, but I felt the third (or fourth depending on how you count) was very weak. It is one of those "very artificial setup so that I can play with the characters I like" type things.

"The Sagan Diaries", which is only a novella, is very good, though in an entirely different vein from the other books.

I haven't read the last one because it is a "young adult" book, and the thought of another young adult novel these days makes me cringe.
----
ウセーバラケダ
[ Parent ]

NHS Plc by Herring (4.00 / 2) #11 Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 06:09:34 PM EST
I suppose I should start working on my rebuttal of your rebuttal of the book (yes, there are a few glaring holes in it). What's interesting though is that it is a tome by an actual academic with actual numbers to back up the arguments.

I keep starting on "why I think vouchers for healthcare are a crap idea" but haven't sat down and worked on it solidly. Reading an article in this week's New Scientist, however, the suggestion is that "patient choice" vastly increases the cost of healthcare without having any real benefits in terms of mortality/morbidity. My theory is that once people become "consumers" rather than "patients" then the whining hypochondriac in them comes to the fore.

On a light tangent, I notice recenty that after the government's campaign to make GPs look like greedy, lazy bastards that barristers have been hit now over the new legal aid contract. The powers that be are describing the £91 an hour that they are willing to pay barristers as "salary" when, of course, it has to cover all of their business expenses. I recently had some work done on my car and was charged £80 an hour for labour - for a job done by someone who, I suspect, has spent less time training that a barrister has.

Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge - Charles Darwin


I'll start working by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #19 Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 04:02:37 AM EST
On my rebuttal of your rebuttal of my rebuttal...

But I didn't think the book was that bad: it made a lot of good points. .
--
Butch and Petey are harsh and unforgiving in their estimation of female beauty.
[ Parent ]

Also by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #20 Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 04:27:06 AM EST
This is a good chance to apply the patient choice theory to a real case.

On Friday, I had a wisdom tooth extracted. This was done privately, by a dentist, under local anaesthetic.

I would have preferred a general anaesthetic. I could have got it done for free under the NHS, but there's a 6-month waiting list for non-essentials like that. Or I could have got it done privately, but that would have cost me a couple of thousand, and I'm even more of a miser than I'm a coward.

But suppose I had got it done privately under a general anaesthetic. The cost would have dramatically risen. The outcome would have been no better.

Why would that have been a bad thing?

Remember that over the long term, I'm not taking an anaesthetist away from the needy, since I'm creating more demand and increasing the size of the market. Why is it so bad for me to spend money on a British business, if I have the choice to do otherwise?
--
Butch and Petey are harsh and unforgiving in their estimation of female beauty.
[ Parent ]

choice by garlic (2.00 / 0) #32 Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 08:22:30 PM EST
I have all sorts of choice, but I have no good way to make the choice. How do I choose the surgeon for my appendectomy? How do I know which podiatrist is the best value for the money? Do I want to go to the doctor for my sore ribs when all they can do is give me the right diagnosis, but rib pain's prescription is mostly wait it out?

[ Parent ]

All for one and one for all | 36 comments (36 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback